The slight risk has been upgraded to a moderate risk for today for LA and MS, but a slight risk remains for the other gulf coast states. The tornado risk for the area is currently at 15%. The area is also currenlty under a tornado watch as a squall line makes its way eastward.

The SPC said this: SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE N/S SQUALL LINE NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OFF THE GULF WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS INTO AT LEAST SWRN AL BY THIS EVENING.

 There is a slight risk today for north east Texas and for West LA. There is currently a tornado Watch for the area. Damaging winds are the main risk but there is also a 10% chance for Tornadoes.

The SPC said this: THE ENTIRE WIND PROFILE WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS STRONGER WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO UPSTREAM SYSTEM  OVERSPREADS THE REGION.  GIVEN THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY  LAYER...WEAKENING CIN AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN LARGER CONVECTIVE SHIELD WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING  WINDS. 

There is a slight risk today for south Flordia. The current tornado risk for the area is at 5%. The area is currently under a tornado watch.

The SPC said this:  WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SW ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION AT 16Z NE-SW FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO W OF EYW.  WITH STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THE SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOS/WATER SPOUTS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES SEWD EXITING MAINLAND S FL BY 21Z.